25 November 2015

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Happy Thanksgiving

“Stand up for what you believe, even if you are standing alone.”

Sophie Scholl

I am going to be properly busy the rest of today and tomorrow.

The lady is the monarch of the household, and on Thanksgiving I am impressed by her decree into service.

And so I am appointed the captain of the cooking range and for the preparation of a multi-course meal for a number that seems to vary more than the Fed's economic projections, and just about as unreliably.

But I do have a working estimate, and there is a turkey to be brined, and last minute items to secure.

So I will bid all my American readers a Happy Thanksgiving. 

And no matter how confusing and complicated and uncertain things may seem to become, keep your eye focused on 'the little white spot', as my old teacher used to say to his charges, more than forty years ago, in a shabby old schoolroom in a declining part of the city.   And I have never seen a place more vibrantly alive.

And for the 'rest of the world,' as the financial press puts it, please try to carry on without us.

And for everyone, as always, have a wonderful time with family and friends, and at the very least, a pleasant evening.

"And now, bless the God of all,
who has done wondrous things here on earth;
Who fosters people’s growth from their mother’s womb,
and would fashion them according to his will.
May he grant you joy of heart,
and may peace abide among you."

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts at Midday and the European Close

24 November 2015

'Silk Road' Countries' Gold Reserves and Demand Accumulation Has Grown 450% Since 2008

Silk road total demand, including the growth of official reserves and commercial imports, has risen from 1,493 tonnes in the year 2000 to over 27,087 tonnes in 2015.

The greatest increase has been since the global financial crisis in 2008 with an astonishing increase of 450% over the total amounts accumulated until then.

As you may recall, gold was ending its long bear market with a price bottom and a long climb higher shortly after the currency crises of Asia and Russia in the 1990's.

Silk Road demand has easily exceeded total global mine production for the last two years. And quite  Therefore, in addition to mining, other sources of gold have had to be found.  This may include scrap, and gold held by other entities.

Has this surge in gold demand been an uniquely Chinese government phenomenon?  Hardly.

In the second chart I show all the gold reserve increases for China AND Russia from the year 2000. They account for only about 11.4% of the growth in gold demand from the 'Silk Road' countries.

It is interesting to match this with the steady declines in Western gold vaults and the increased leverage in gold trading, what some call 'synthetic gold,' that became apparent in 2013.

I show that in the third chart vis a vis the Comex, and the fourth chart for the London Vaults.

The fifth chart compares the relative physical deliveries on the Shanghai Exchange and the NY Comex.

I am not trying to persuade or convince anyone, or argue with anyone, and certainly not sell anything.
Here are the facts as I have been able to discover them, and I cannot control what people may choose to think or not to think about them.

The data suggests that the volume of gold increased dramatically in 2013, when measures seem to have been taken to dampen the large increase in price up to the $1900 level, through rather clumsily determined selling programs in quiet hours.

This increased flow of bullion may be the result of Gresham's Law, which states that 'when a government overvalues one type of money and undervalues another, the undervalued money will leave the country or disappear from circulation into hoards, while the overvalued money will flood into circulation.'

The data suggests that gold is very underpriced in US dollars because of an effort to make the dollar appear to be strong and gold to be disreputable as an alternative store of wealth.  Why should gold be more favored than cash money in their own currencies, which central bankers would also like to eliminate to smooth the way for further policy blundering and experimentation.

They are hardly without better alternatives to this.  Except of course for their pride, and insular group thinking, and of course the credibility trap that does not allow for frank discussions of what the problems really are and how we might move along.  But alas, that is not favored by The Banks and the moneyed interests.  And so the very serious people are loathe to even raise the subject of genuine reform in a serious conversation, except in some mockery of a charade.

And the Congress is no better.  The Congress may not know when it is talking nonsense about the economic situation, but the financiers, the Banks, and their hired hands do, but don't care.

Whatever else someone may say about this, it is apparent by any examination of the figures that gold bullion is flowing from West to East, and in some fairly consequential and increasing volumes.

The Silk Road has added over 25,000 tonnes of gold in the last fifteen years.  The gold miners are hardly in a position to increase production and search for new supply.  A gold mine takes four or more years to bring into production.

According to Nick Laird's figures, monthly global mining production is about 260 tonnes, and monthly demand is about 357 tonnes.  I have included a list of the top gold producing countries  in chart six.

Where will the supply for the Silk Road demand come from over the next five years, as it continues to grow faster than mining and even scrap production?

These two charts are from Nick Laird at goldchartsrus.com, with my annotations.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Quiet Option Expiration

Gold and silver both caught a bid this morning on a flight to safety after the key US ally Turkey shot down a Russian jet allegedly infringing on their border with Syria for a matter of less than seventeen seconds.

Russia disputes this as one might imagine.  They claim that the jet was one mile within the Syrian border.

Turkmen on the ground then shot the defenseless pilots as they descended by parachute.  And put a bow on it by shooting down a rescue helicopter that came searching for them.

Shooting a parachuting air crew member from a distressed aircraft is a violation of Article 42 of the Geneva Convention,  It is abhorred by professional military organizations as a despicable and dishonorable act.  And it is a war crime.

No worries.  Nothing to see here.  Move along.

Nothing much happened in The Bucket Shop yesterday. There were no deliveries, and only some silver leaked out of the warehouses.

Tomorrow the US markets will be open, but 'unless something happens' the markets will hit their objective by 1 PM, and the adults will leave the algos in the capable hands of junior traders.

Let's see if gold and silver get any gut checks in advance of the December contract after today's option expiration.

Here is a modest proposal.

All wars not in direct defense of US soil should be fully funded up front by a 'no exemptions' alternative minimum surtax on private incomes over one million dollars, corporate incomes over one billion, and a one-tenth of one percent tax on all Wall Street transactions, with no exceptions for The Banks or other pseudo 'market makers.'

Everyone has to do their part. The average poor Americans do most of the actual fighting and dying. Those who make the most money off these endless wars should be obliged to pay for them up front.

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Traditional Thanksgiving Week Rally And More War, Huzzah!

"War against a foreign country only happens when the moneyed classes think they are going to profit from it."

George Orwell

As you may have heard, Turkey shot down a Russian jet on the Syria/Turkey border.

Turkish Syrian freedom fighters then shot the Russian pilots as they descended on parachutes, and also shot down a Russian rescue helicopter that came to search for them.

Stock shrugged this news and some fairly spirit dampening economic news, and managed to shake off deep losses to finish largely unchanged with a slight gain in the lead sled dog SP futures.

No one can say that anything can dampen the traditional Thanksgiving Week rally on Wall Street. Especially when the volumes are light, and the algos are determined to push equities up by buying the SP futures and a few key bellwethers.

Have a pleasant evening.