27 July 2016

Thomas Frank Explains Why Hillary May Talk Reform, But Will Never Be a Reformer

"The hypocrite's crime is that he bears false witness against himself. What makes it so plausible to assume that hypocrisy is the vice of vices is that integrity can indeed exist under the cover of all other vices except this one. Only crime and the criminal, it is true, confront us with the perplexity of radical evil; but only the hypocrite is really rotten to the core."

Hannah Arendt

"Those who are able to climb up the ladder will find ways to pull it up after them, or selectively lower it down to allow their friends, allies, and kin to scramble up. In other words: 'who says meritocracy says oligarchy.'"

Chris Hayes

The DNC is an arm of the Clinton wing of the Democratic Party.

Hillary is a neo-liberal on economics, and a neo-con on foreign policy.

She and her crowd are masters of spin and the management of popular perception.

I think Frank and Scheer are being far too kind.

The politicians and bankers know exactly what they are doing.

They are not deluded, or simply mistaken; they simply do not care.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - So Far So Good

Gold and silver caught some legs to the upside today after the Fed did nothing.

The markets suspect that the Bank of Japan will be announcing something that sounds like 'helicopter money' on Friday, which will continue to boost the global liquidity depending on what they do.

Another day or two of upside for the metals and we may be getting that 'up, up, and away' action that we discussed last week.

We have an intermediate inverse head and shoulders working, and if it breaks out it signals 1450 as a minimum objective, against the cup and handle longer term target of 1490.

Silver is just a beast, explosive to the upside.

It turns out that the DNC had been warned some time ago that their servers were vulnerable to hacking, and they chose to do nothing about it.   I suppose that is consistent with Hillary's Luddite approach to tech security for her own State Department emails.

Let's see if gold and silver can hold on to these gains and add enough to stick a close in the breakout territory that lasts.

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Risk On As the Fed Coos Short Term Dovishness

Stocks caught a serious bid after the Fed announced they were doing nothing today.

They did change some of their wording, with the intent of smoothing the way for a possible rate hike in September.

That is getting a little close to the election, but I think that all things considered they have one more rate hike in their bag of tricks, and if not September then December, but that delay adds risks of missing the opportunity.

After the bell Facebook beat its numbers adding further fuel to big tech which was leading the way higher today compliments of Apple.

Have a pleasant evening.

26 July 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Quiet Option Expiry, FOMC Tomorrow

“It was written I should be loyal to the nightmare of my choice.”

Joseph Conrad, Heart of Darkness

"Judge them by their works. What have they done for mankind beyond the spinning of airy fancies, and the mistaking of their own shadows for gods?"

Jack London, The Iron Heel

That first quote is for Bernie Sanders, and that second sums the substance of the Fed.

I think that the gold and silver prices got pegged to the price that pleased those who wanted to take the most out of the pockets of the non-professional (directional) options players.

Tomorrow will be the FOMC, and we may see a move, depending on just what the Fed decides to do.

I can see them doing nothing, or raising 25 bp and getting it over with.  I put it at almost 50-50.  They are running out of time to act from a practical standpoint, but the financial system is so shaky that they are paralyzed by fear of doing anything that will cast a finger of blame in their direction.

I will not go into all the reasons, but it does not have much to do with the real economy.  They are preoccupied with managing their policy options against the risks from their financial asset bubbles, as well as the needs and desires of their real constituents, the Banks.

Tonight Bill 'Slick Willy' Clinton will be speaking to the Democratic Convention.  It would be a real stunner if he was booed, even sporadically.  For all his shortcomings and flaws, he is a very good speaker and has a following amongst the hard core of the Party establishment.

I won't be watching.  To put it bluntly, Slick makes me sick.   And I am already there with both of the presumptive nominees.  It is going to be a long four years ahead.

There will be a lot of political kabuki theatre tonight.  I suspect that Bernie Sanders will release his delegates, at least in the Vermont delegation, in order to try and put Hillary over the top as the nominee in a show of unity.

His constituents and volunteers seem to have been roundly let down, if not betrayed.   Especially in the light of the manner in which Hillary corrupted the DNC and bent it to her will, the voters and the law be damned, and the clumsy propaganda she put out to try and distract away from it.

I am putting my money on karma, but that takes time.

Oh well, politics is a dirty business.

At least gold does not tarnish easily.

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Earnings After the Bell, FOMC Tomorrow

Stocks traded on pretty decent volume today, despite the lack of tangible price action.

I suspect we were seeing a lot of positioning ahead of some of the big tech earnings results tonight, such as AAPL, as well as the FOMC decision on interest rates at 2 PM tomorrow.

Stocks seem fully valued here, and vulnerable to a reversal.

If the Fed does raise 25 bp it will most likely be benign to our sluggish real economy, but it might provide a jolt to the bubbles in financial assets which they have, once again, created.

Have a pleasant evening.

How a New Vision Rose From the Chaos of the Democratic Convention of 1924